Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 76¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

-$187.32

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 75.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares16,894

Combined PnL+$432.74

No3 traders

Total Value$979.97

Total Shares4,000

Combined PnL-$620.06

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981	Yesavg 72.5¢	$8.9K	$9.2K	+$380.21	63% 17-10 (27)
18 1881aa	Yesavg 73.2¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$26.42	71% 380-154 (534)
alanhuttonCTR	Noavg 48.8¢	$1.5K	$734.97	-$715.06	68% 335-158 (493)
2B9SCTR	Noavg 12¢	$60	$122.5	+$62.5	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR	Noavg 18¢	$90	$122.5	+$32.5	69% 404-180 (584)
TimeTraveler<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$40.8	$66.9	+$26.11	41% 1986-2802 (4788)

0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981

Yes

Invested

$8,864.81

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$380.21

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

1881aa

Yes

Invested

$3,416.43

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$26.42

Record

71%

380-154 (534)

alanhuttonCTR

Invested

$1,450.02

Value

$734.97

PnL

-$715.06

Record

68%

335-158 (493)

2B9SCTR

Invested

$60

Value

$122.5

PnL

+$62.5

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

SeniorLaghettoCTR

Invested

$90

Value

$122.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

TimeTraveler<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.8

Value

$66.9

PnL

+$26.11

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.