Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 56¢ · $91K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$90.8K

Combined PnL

$12.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 55.9¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$87.7K

Total Shares162,637

Combined PnL+$12.0K

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,552

Combined PnL+$386.2

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 56% · 9

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alphaalii	Yesavg 50.4¢	$44.6K	$46.0K	+$4.9K	— 12-4 (16)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 56.6¢	$31.9K	$29.4K	-$687.48	69% 404-180 (584)
JA jacemaester	Yesavg 14.2¢	$4.26	$9.8K	+$7.9K	— 2-2 (4)
18 1881aa	Yesavg 67.1¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$243.05	71% 380-154 (534)
alanhuttonCTR	Noavg 54.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$60.91	68% 335-158 (493)
VI VitaaalyaCTR	Noavg 76.4¢	$377.25	$723	+$345.75	71% 247-103 (350)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 40.1¢	$320.8	$385.6	+$32.4	36% 397-691 (1088)
JI jiafanCTR	Noavg 30.5¢	$277.26	$300.38	+$23.13	59% 1460-1019 (2479)
-Yang-	Yesavg 23¢	$111.21	$256.42	+$136.78	82% 275-61 (336)
AllByMyseIfCTR	Noavg 15.3¢	$60.2	$189.65	+$113.51	65% 671-357 (1028)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Noavg 54.3¢	$213.28	$141.96	-$31.34	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
ScottyNoooCTR	Noavg 84.9¢	$188.48	$107	-$80.25	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR	Noavg 87.7¢	$175.4	$96.4	-$77.9	88% 2229-292 (2521)
StarMaster<$100	Yesavg 55.4¢	$85.71	$79.49	-$6.22	53% 1858-1640 (3498)

alphaalii

Yes

Invested

$44,636.98

Value

$46.0K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

—

12-4 (16)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$31,855.63

Value

$29.4K

PnL

-$687.48

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

jacemaester

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

—

2-2 (4)

1881aa

Yes

Invested

$2,411.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$243.05

Record

71%

380-154 (534)

alanhuttonCTR

Invested

$1,140.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$60.91

Record

68%

335-158 (493)

VitaaalyaCTR

Invested

$377.25

Value

$723

PnL

+$345.75

Record

71%

247-103 (350)

troimCTR

Invested

$320.8

Value

$385.6

PnL

+$32.4

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

jiafanCTR

Invested

$277.26

Value

$300.38

PnL

+$23.13

Record

59%

1460-1019 (2479)

-Yang-

Yes

Invested

$111.21

Value

$256.42

PnL

+$136.78

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

AllByMyseIfCTR

Invested

$60.2

Value

$189.65

PnL

+$113.51

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Invested

$213.28

Value

$141.96

PnL

-$31.34

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ScottyNoooCTR

Invested

$188.48

Value

$107

PnL

-$80.25

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR

Invested

$175.4

Value

$96.4

PnL

-$77.9

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

StarMaster<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.71

Value

$79.49

PnL

-$6.22

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 56% · 9

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.6%

55.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.