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B3
Consensus PnL -$7.0K · win rate 57% (95–73, n=168) · was PM monthly #824 · holds 5 consensus positions
0xb36cfbf8...9ed31077Polymarket
🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-7.0K
Record
95W / 73L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 168 settled
Batting Avg
42.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1347
Source
PM monthly #824
Trades
221
Markets
293
Volume
$581.3K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 5 on the consensus side (20%)- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $2.7K · now 42¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (48% of 46)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $847 · now 45¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $632 · now 63¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?No $31 · now 37¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Yes $12 · now 13¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
155 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 64¢- Finance
+19 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 23% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 38% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 70% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 90% of 80)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.