Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 64¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$68.73
59.9¢ → 63.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
64h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigMackyG | Yesavg 59.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$139.2 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
 classifiedARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$6.48 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $920.5 | $920.15 | +$2.64 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.2¢ | $493.81 | $497.66 | +$3.84 | |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $527.84 | $454.82 | -$73.02 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $192.59 | $195.12 | +$8.1 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
20 20260601CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $34.06 | $31.37 | -$2.69 | 52% 94-88 (182) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $41.7 | $13.38 | -$3.26 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 StupidMonkeyyy<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $0.61 | $1.03 | +$0.4 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
BigMackyGInvested
$2,287.14
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$139.2
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
classifiedARB<$100Invested
$1,446.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$6.48
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
Both legs:
Invested
$527.84
Value
$454.82
PnL
-$73.02
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$192.59
Value
$195.12
PnL
+$8.1
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
Invested
$34.06
Value
$31.37
PnL
-$2.69
Record
52%
94-88 (182)
Invested
$41.7
Value
$13.38
PnL
-$3.26
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.