Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$2.4K
$116.61
80.7¢ → 87¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
671h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 80.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$165.88 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $56 | $65.38 | +$9.38 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
10 101456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $15.7 | $62.32 | -$37.05 | 53% 141-126 (267) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $45.62 | $35.64 | -$9.98 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $106 | $21.84 | -$5.68 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $46.77 | $12.66 | -$1.16 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
20 20260601CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $17.42 | $12.48 | -$4.95 | 52% 94-88 (182) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $19.07 | $7.15 | +$0.17 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
UdonsanInvested
$2,003.09
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$165.88
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
Invested
$56
Value
$65.38
PnL
+$9.38
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$15.7
Value
$62.32
PnL
-$37.05
Record
53%
141-126 (267)
Invested
$45.62
Value
$35.64
PnL
-$9.98
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
UbuntuTradingCTRInvested
$106
Value
$21.84
PnL
-$5.68
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$46.77
Value
$12.66
PnL
-$1.16
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$17.42
Value
$12.48
PnL
-$4.95
Record
52%
94-88 (182)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$0.17
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.