Consensus PnL -$11K · win rate 69% (11–5, n=16) · was PM monthly #831 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-10.7K
Record
11W / 5L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 16 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#801
Source
PM monthly #831
Trades
7
Markets
23
Volume
$31.6K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No $344 · now 24¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Yes $217 · now 17¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $79 · now 3¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes $3 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 81¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 6742's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.