Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 97¢ · $484 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$483.73
-$647.74
83¢ → 97.4¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $190.75 | $194.66 | +$3.9 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
KI KiruaTrading | Noavg 67.7¢ | $101.49 | $145.87 | +$44.37 | 57% 271-203 (474) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Yes | $112.39 | $112.39 | -$685.31 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $35.31 | $25.82 | -$9.49 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
67 6742CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2 | $2.75 | +$0.75 | — 9-5 (14) |
 Trading4FridgeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $2.14 | $1.73 | -$0.41 | 58% 928-661 (1589) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.08 | $0.52 | -$1.56 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$190.75
Value
$194.66
PnL
+$3.9
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$101.49
Value
$145.87
PnL
+$44.37
Record
57%
271-203 (474)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$112.39
Value
$112.39
PnL
-$685.31
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$35.31
Value
$25.82
PnL
-$9.49
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
—
9-5 (14)
Trading4FridgeCTR<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$0.41
Record
58%
928-661 (1589)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$1.56
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.