Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 17¢ · $447 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$447.42
-$56.63
19.5¢ → 17¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
949h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
36 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 6742CTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $204.66 | $217.45 | +$19.19 | — 9-5 (14) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $138.53 | $157.55 | +$19.03 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $138.44 | $48.03 | -$89 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $15.39 | $15.03 | -$0.36 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $14.85 | $9.36 | -$5.49 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$204.66
Value
$217.45
PnL
+$19.19
Record
—
9-5 (14)
Invested
$138.53
Value
$157.55
PnL
+$19.03
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$138.44
Value
$48.03
PnL
-$89
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$15.39
Value
$15.03
PnL
-$0.36
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$14.85
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$5.49
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.