Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 76¢ · $24K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 76¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares30,388

Combined PnL+$4.2K

No6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,567

Combined PnL-$125.47

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

949h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WordleAddict	Yesavg 76.4¢	$10.7K	$10.6K	-$55.84	61% 941-614 (1555)
0xdc3E831cad	Yesavg 48¢	$457.59	$4.9K	+$3.4K	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 62.7¢	$2.9K	$3.6K	+$598.39	64% 85-47 (132)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Yesavg 74.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$61.56	73% 350-129 (479)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 72.5¢	$671.66	$704.35	+$32.69	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 29.9¢	$538	$432	-$97	36% 397-691 (1088)
67 6742CTR	Noavg 22¢	$315.05	$344.34	+$7.77	— 9-5 (14)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Yesavg 73¢	$329.23	$342.76	+$20.3	45% 112-138 (250)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 23.3¢	$246.21	$250.13	+$3.93	39% 175-269 (444)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$162.97	$157.98	-$5	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
KI KiruaTrading	Yesavg 27¢	$48.16	$135.55	+$87.4	57% 271-203 (474)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Noavg 30.7¢	$169.42	$135.24	-$34.18	35% 35-65 (100)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 75.2¢	$56.92	$58.34	+$1.42	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$20.22	$19.23	-$0.99	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

WordleAddict

Yes

Invested

$10,668.53

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$55.84

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$457.59

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Yes

Invested

$2,945

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$598.39

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

M2sx92kljs42

Yes

Invested

$2,746.83

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$61.56

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$671.66

Value

$704.35

PnL

+$32.69

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

troimCTR

Invested

$538

Value

$432

PnL

-$97

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

6742CTR

Invested

$315.05

Value

$344.34

PnL

+$7.77

Record

—

9-5 (14)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Yes

Invested

$329.23

Value

$342.76

PnL

+$20.3

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$246.21

Value

$250.13

PnL

+$3.93

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$162.97

Value

$157.98

PnL

-$5

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

KiruaTrading

Yes

Invested

$48.16

Value

$135.55

PnL

+$87.4

Record

57%

271-203 (474)

dromedaryyCTR

Invested

$169.42

Value

$135.24

PnL

-$34.18

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.92

Value

$58.34

PnL

+$1.42

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$0.99

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

949h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.