Consensus PnL $108K · win rate 78% (3976–1097, n=5073) · PM monthly #362 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$108.2K
Record
3976W / 1097L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 5073 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#481
Source
PM monthly #362
Trades
52
Markets
5,432
Volume
$991.9K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-11-01?No $231 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)FC Twente $84 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to ScoreNo $69 · now 100¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- FC Emmen vs. FC Den Bosch: O/U 4.5Over $10 · now 100¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Under)
- FC Emmen vs. FC Den Bosch: O/U 3.5Over $2 · now 100¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
2,412 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 75¢- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 87% of 2412 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 47% of 114)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 68% of 203)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 80% of 411)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 94% of 1684)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.