Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold FC Twente (60%) · FC Twente at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

FC Twente>99¢SBV Excelsior<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Twente

Consensus Traders

FC Twente 60%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$48.53

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Twente at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Twente

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Twente100%

SBV Excelsior0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Twente6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,531

Combined PnL+$576.96

SBV Excelsior4 traders

Total Value$5.79

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL-$625.48

FC Twente — 60%SBV Excelsior — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FC Twente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on SBV Excelsior) and the top 1000 (6 on FC Twente) disagree here.

whaleFC Twente 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpFC Twente 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSBV Excelsior 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSBV Excelsior 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Twente 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Twenteavg 87.4¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$521.58	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
RN1	FC Twenteavg 98¢	$713.44	$724.36	+$10.92	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
ZX zxc368	FC Twenteavg 99.9¢	$135.06	$135.13	+$0.07	98% 13363-214 (13577)
AR ARocky33<$100	FC Twenteavg 77.5¢	$65.21	$83.68	+$18.47	76% 4144-1304 (5448)
SN SnakeBall<$100	FC Twenteavg 41¢	$17.39	$42.39	+$24.81	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
HRTrading<$100	FC Twenteavg 39¢	$3.37	$6	+$1.1	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888CTR	SBV Excelsioravg 58¢	$348	$3	-$345	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0xheavy888CTR	SBV Excelsioravg 58¢	$232	$2	-$227.6	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	SBV Excelsioravg 34¢	$39.1	$0.58	-$38.53	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
poshposhCTR<$100	SBV Excelsioravg 34¢	$14.57	$0.21	-$14.36	58% 10670-7656 (18326)

GoalLineGhost

FC Twente

Invested

$3,963.75

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$521.58

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

RN1

FC Twente

Invested

$713.44

Value

$724.36

PnL

+$10.92

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

zxc368

FC Twente

Invested

$135.06

Value

$135.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

98%

13363-214 (13577)

ARocky33<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$65.21

Value

$83.68

PnL

+$18.47

Record

76%

4144-1304 (5448)

SnakeBall<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$17.39

Value

$42.39

PnL

+$24.81

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

HRTrading<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$3.37

Value

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

VeryLucky888CTR

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$348

Value

PnL

-$345

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0xheavy888CTR

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$232

Value

PnL

-$227.6

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$39.1

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$38.53

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

poshposhCTR<$100

SBV Excelsior

Invested

$14.57

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$14.36

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Research grade

NeutralFC Twente at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

FC Twente

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FC Twente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on SBV Excelsior) and the top 1000 (6 on FC Twente) disagree here.

whaleFC Twente 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpFC Twente 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSBV Excelsior 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSBV Excelsior 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Twente 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Twente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.