Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.7K
$103.22
95.3¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$93.35 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 94¢ | $217.62 | $231.39 | +$13.78 | 76% 4143-1304 (5447) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $49.88 | $57.36 | +$7.48 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $34.26 | $36.64 | +$2.38 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $4.49 | $9.59 | +$5.1 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.81 | $6.81 | -$1.01 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $16.86 | $1.24 | -$15.62 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.08 | $0.85 | -$2.23 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
Invested
$2,218.27
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$93.35
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$217.62
Value
$231.39
PnL
+$13.78
Record
76%
4143-1304 (5447)
Invested
$49.88
Value
$57.36
PnL
+$7.48
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$34.26
Value
$36.64
PnL
+$2.38
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.49
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$5.1
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.81
Value
$6.81
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$16.86
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$15.62
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$2.23
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.