Consensus PnL -$23K · win rate 48% (211–228, n=439) · PM monthly #488 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-22.6K
Record
211W / 228L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 439 settled
Batting Avg
91.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1270
Source
PM monthly #488
Record (90 d)
200/429 · 47%
Trades
4,063
Markets
458
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Alexandra EalaAlexandra Eala $4.9K · now 45¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (58% of 32)
Specialties
428 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 47¢- NFL
+4 pts
side won 51% of 68 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +4%
- NHL
+6 pts
side won 57% of 30 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 37% of 63 at an average 47¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 17% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 42% of 159)
- 50–70¢: 51%(won 56% of 220)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 67% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.