Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 60% (688–460, n=1148) · hand-picked wallet · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$32.3K
Record
688W / 460L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 1148 settled
Batting Avg
65.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1151
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,057
Markets
1,595
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No $5.1K · now 94¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
955 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 47¢- Esports
+44 pts
side won 88% of 168 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +38%
- Mentions
+14 pts
side won 61% of 311 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +16%
- Geopolitics
+15 pts
side won 72% of 140 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 33% of 15 at an average 45¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 29% of 278)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 66% of 241)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 83% of 211)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 93% of 225)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.