Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$5.5K
$986.19
72.3¢ → 92.7¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV AvishaiBass | Noavg 71¢ | $3.9K | $5.1K | +$1.2K | 55% 871-725 (1596) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $229.29 | $229.91 | +$0.99 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 85¢ | $108.07 | $118.26 | +$9.76 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 studmuffin6969CTR | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $201.17 | $54.44 | -$146.73 | 59% 1027-717 (1744) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $30.2 | $31.47 | +$1.27 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
LI linethCTR<$100 | Yes | $30.32 | $30.32 | -$64.88 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
Invested
$3,870.92
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
55%
871-725 (1596)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$229.29
Value
$229.91
PnL
+$0.99
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$108.07
Value
$118.26
PnL
+$9.76
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
studmuffin6969CTRInvested
$201.17
Value
$54.44
PnL
-$146.73
Record
59%
1027-717 (1744)
Invested
$30.2
Value
$31.47
PnL
+$1.27
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$30.32
Value
$30.32
PnL
-$64.88
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.