Consensus PnL $104K · no settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #568 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$104.2K
Record
0W / 0L
Win Rate
—
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2277
Source
PM monthly #568
Trades
102
Markets
9
Volume
$102.2K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $156K · now 97¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $58K · now 73¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $45K · now 95¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $8.3K · now 5¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $6.5K · now 72¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where BearKingdom's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.