Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 5.0¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$53.3K

Combined PnL

$14.5K

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 5¢

+19% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$53.3K

Total Shares1,045,777

Combined PnL+$14.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

446 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mombilCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$6.8K	$15.0K	+$3.3K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$6.8K	$8.6K	+$1.8K	69% 987-450 (1437)
BE BearKingdomCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$7.9K	$8.3K	+$329.61	— 1-1 (2)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$15.76	$4.3K	+$3.6K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$93.94	$3.6K	+$754.34	63% 217-127 (344)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.2K	$3.3K	+$1.1K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$91.15	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$785.48	$3.3K	+$2.5K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$654.19	26% 351-985 (1336)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$437.03	$360.55	-$83.54	69% 423-188 (611)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$321.55	$321.55	+$268.73	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$126.27	$254.68	+$74.91	41% 648-925 (1573)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$39.6	$253.83	+$213.81	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$101.77	$137.15	+$35.38	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$82	$102	+$19	76% 291-93 (384)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$40	$17	-$23.17	57% 1113-837 (1950)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.13	$0.93	+$0.8	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.25	+$0.25	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,811.76

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,761.59

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

BearKingdomCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,887.49

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$329.61

Record

—

1-1 (2)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$15.76

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$93.94

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$754.34

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,156.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,265.71

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$91.15

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$785.48

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,630.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$654.19

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$437.03

Value

$360.55

PnL

-$83.54

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$321.55

Value

$321.55

PnL

+$268.73

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$126.27

Value

$254.68

PnL

+$74.91

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$39.6

Value

$253.83

PnL

+$213.81

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.77

Value

$137.15

PnL

+$35.38

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$82

Value

$102

PnL

+$19

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$17

PnL

-$23.17

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.8

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,148.38

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

446 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1506.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

1606.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.