Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

63 of 83 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 73¢ · $953K held · ends Nov 4

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$953.0K

Combined PnL

$93.8K

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 72.5¢

+18% since entry · 63 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 73%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

63 of 83 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes63 traders

Total Value$833.2K

Total Shares1,138,286

Combined PnL+$129.9K

No20 traders

Total Value$108.0K

Total Shares399,839

Combined PnL$-36.1K

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

63 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

232 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 30

Aligned

sharpYes 81% · 26

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 61% · 33

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 63

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Yesavg 67¢	$253.4K	$274.2K	+$20.8K	43% 561-738 (1299)
BE BearKingdom	Yesavg 48.6¢	$2.0K	$58.3K	+$23.1K	— 1-1 (2)
CO cocos228	Yesavg 64.6¢	$46.5K	$52.5K	+$5.7K	72% 68-27 (95)
YU yuahldj	Yesavg 62¢	$43.6K	$51.3K	+$7.4K	— 9-2 (11)
11 11122CTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$68.0K	$50.1K	$-17.9K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 62.3¢	$35.2K	$39.3K	+$4.0K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 63¢	$32.4K	$37.3K	+$4.9K	63% 159-95 (254)
bullishkirbyCTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$48.9K	$37.0K	$-11.2K	64% 93-52 (145)
TE TeamA	Yesavg 65¢	$22.5K	$25.0K	+$2.6K	— 2-0 (2)
RE rebotsliaf	Yesavg 44¢	$15.7K	$25.0K	+$9.3K	25% 185-564 (749)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 67.5¢	$21.3K	$22.9K	+$1.6K	38% 20-32 (52)
CA carlos484	Yesavg 72.9¢	$20.2K	$20.0K	-$136.93	61% 20-13 (33)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Yesavg 64.4¢	$4.8K	$19.2K	+$4.5K	32% 742-1577 (2319)
ZE zerosmart	Yesavg 49¢	$0.3	$17.8K	+$5.4K	48% 66-72 (138)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Yesavg 46¢	$10.8K	$17.1K	+$6.3K	62% 45-28 (73)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 46.1¢	$10.2K	$15.2K	+$5.0K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PH Philwos	Yesavg 66¢	$11.8K	$13.0K	+$1.2K	— 10-3 (13)
SE SecondWindCapital	Yesavg 51.8¢	$9.3K	$12.9K	+$3.7K	36% 25-45 (70)
IC ic4creamARB<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$11.5K	$11.7K	+$221.82	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
└ No leg	Noavg 28.9¢	$6.6K	$6.2K	-$327.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.3¢	$4.9K	$5.5K	+$549.19
WA wan123	Yesavg 46¢	$7.4K	$11.7K	+$4.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 48.7¢	$6.3K	$8.9K	+$2.6K	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 45¢	$5.3K	$8.5K	+$3.2K	56% 973-769 (1742)
mombil	Yesavg 59¢	$6.0K	$7.4K	+$1.4K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
George.Smiley	Yesavg 63¢	$6.3K	$7.3K	+$950	62% 142-88 (230)
PI pieped	Yesavg 71¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$150	42% 71-100 (171)

BreakTheBank

Yes

Invested

$253,401.98

Value

$274.2K

PnL

+$20.8K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

BearKingdom

Yes

Invested

$2,007.12

Value

$58.3K

PnL

+$23.1K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

cocos228

Yes

Invested

$46,472.81

Value

$52.5K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

yuahldj

Yes

Invested

$43,574.38

Value

$51.3K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

—

9-2 (11)

11122CTR

Invested

$67,972.62

Value

$50.1K

PnL

$-17.9K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$35,242.39

Value

$39.3K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$32,445

Value

$37.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

bullishkirbyCTR

Invested

$48,908.99

Value

$37.0K

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

64%

93-52 (145)

TeamA

Yes

Invested

$22,456.02

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

rebotsliaf

Yes

Invested

$15,741.41

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$21,308.99

Value

$22.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

carlos484

Yes

Invested

$20,226.57

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$136.93

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Yes

Invested

$4,774.85

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

zerosmart

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

Loyalty-Crash

Yes

Invested

$10,802.98

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$10,182.84

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Philwos

Yes

Invested

$11,807.11

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

10-3 (13)

SecondWindCapital

Yes

Invested

$9,258.05

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

ic4creamARB<$100

Invested

$11,518.11

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$221.82

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

Both legs:

No$6,571.4128.9¢-$327.37

Yes$4,945.9565.3¢+$549.19

wan123

Yes

Invested

$7,427.37

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$6,292.95

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$5,299.29

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$5,998.37

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

George.Smiley

Yes

Invested

$6,300

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$950

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$7,099.98

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$150

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 73%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

63 of 83 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

63 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

232 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 30

Aligned

sharpYes 81% · 26

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 61% · 33

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 63

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.3%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.