Consensus PnL $200K · win rate 51% (904–861, n=1765) · PM monthly #649 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$199.6K
Record
904W / 861L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1765 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1777
Source
PM monthly #649
Record (90 d)
196/373 · 53%
Trades
632
Markets
1,923
Volume
$8.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $2.9K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (84% of 50)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $387 · now 8¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (84% of 26)
Specialties
1,784 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 48¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 51% of 1761 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+27 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 22% of 249)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 44% of 691)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 63% of 643)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 79% of 201)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.