Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 15 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 7.8¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 29

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

8.7¢ → 7.8¢

-10% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 17 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares11,476

Combined PnL-$43.72

Yes15 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares158,088

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 12%Yes — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 93.7¢	$8.9K	$8.7K	-$146.72	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$660.76	39% 397-627 (1024)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$103	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$436.14	52% 1575-1457 (3032)
DR drunkdegenerateCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$850	54% 198-167 (365)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$543.26	50% 7330-7454 (14784)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$1.3K	$870.16	-$452.9	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
BA BabooouCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$976	$632	-$348	52% 214-200 (414)
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$512	$632	+$120.02	52% 839-788 (1627)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$468.73	$569.35	+$97.06	57% 1092-820 (1912)
Parz1vaICTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$295.07	$555.01	+$256.46	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
KateBollingerCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$509	$329.6	-$181.48	68% 1753-815 (2568)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$182.65	$224.96	+$40.89	54% 399-345 (744)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$184.8	$221.2	+$35	54% 1253-1088 (2341)
EQ equalsignificanceCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$49.96	$193.89	+$142.72	54% 212-184 (396)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$127.06	$192.02	+$74.17	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$2.73	$99.39	+$34.78	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$8,879.04

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$146.72

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,732.24

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$660.76

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$1,740

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$103

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,033.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$436.14

Record

52%

1575-1457 (3032)

drunkdegenerateCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,420

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$850

Record

54%

198-167 (365)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,897.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$543.26

Record

50%

7330-7454 (14784)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,323.05

Value

$870.16

PnL

-$452.9

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

BabooouCTR

Yes

Invested

$976

Value

$632

PnL

-$348

Record

52%

214-200 (414)

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$512

Value

$632

PnL

+$120.02

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Yes

Invested

$468.73

Value

$569.35

PnL

+$97.06

Record

57%

1092-820 (1912)

Parz1vaICTR

Yes

Invested

$295.07

Value

$555.01

PnL

+$256.46

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

KateBollingerCTR

Yes

Invested

$509

Value

$329.6

PnL

-$181.48

Record

68%

1753-815 (2568)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Yes

Invested

$182.65

Value

$224.96

PnL

+$40.89

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

dancingmonkey1CTR

Yes

Invested

$184.8

Value

$221.2

PnL

+$35

Record

54%

1253-1088 (2341)

equalsignificanceCTR

Yes

Invested

$49.96

Value

$193.89

PnL

+$142.72

Record

54%

212-184 (396)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.06

Value

$192.02

PnL

+$74.17

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$99.39

PnL

+$34.78

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 17 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.3%

7.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$980.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

1080.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.