Consensus PnL $160K · win rate 72% (879–342, n=1221) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$159.9K
Record
879W / 342L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 1221 settled
Batting Avg
72.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#656
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
769
Markets
1,394
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?No $274 · now 68¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,220 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 67¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 75% of 427 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 38% of 143 at an average 43¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 17% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 44% of 266)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 62% of 223)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 85% of 662)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.