Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 32¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.0K
$297.42
29.8¢ → 32¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
464h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$249.66 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $255.56 | $295.41 | +$39.85 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
C6 C63AMG | Noavg 70¢ | $284.43 | $274.27 | -$10.16 | 72% 875-334 (1209) |
 tradecraftCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $112.62 | $126.27 | +$13.65 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $91.39 | $95.82 | +$4.42 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
Invested
$3,007.85
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$249.66
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$255.56
Value
$295.41
PnL
+$39.85
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$284.43
Value
$274.27
PnL
-$10.16
Record
72%
875-334 (1209)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$112.62
Value
$126.27
PnL
+$13.65
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
Invested
$91.39
Value
$95.82
PnL
+$4.42
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.