Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 55% (279–228, n=507) · was PM monthly #649 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.8K
Record
279W / 228L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 507 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1453
Source
PM monthly #649
Trades
192
Markets
534
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Over $19K · now 6¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Kenneth Walker: Anytime TouchdownYes $19K · now 55¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
Specialties
489 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 54¢- College Football
+46 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +47%
- NFL
+37 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +37%
- NBA
+15 pts
side won 68% of 69 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +20%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 45% of 73 at an average 52¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 17% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 54% of 90)
- 50–70¢: 79%(won 63% of 384)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 67% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.