Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kenneth Walker: Anytime Touchdown
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 46¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$30.2K
-$364.82
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA DaBossHoggCTR | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $20.0K | $18.5K | $-1.4K | 51% 218-208 (426) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Noavg 41¢ | $7.9K | $8.7K | +$862.1 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$210 | 49% 1199-1227 (2426) |
MA Markram | Noavg 43¢ | $215 | $227.5 | +$12.5 | 70% 2096-917 (3013) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.64 | $2.73 | +$0.09 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
Invested
$19,979.5
Value
$18.5K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
51%
218-208 (426)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$7,854.65
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$862.1
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$2,520
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$210
Record
49%
1199-1227 (2426)
Invested
$215
Value
$227.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
70%
2096-917 (3013)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.