Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 19 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5

19 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Over (76%) · Over at 40¢ · $193K held · ended Nov 1

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 76%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$192.9K

Combined PnL

-$768.61

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 40¢

-22% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

19 of 25 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over19 traders

Total Value$187.1K

Total Shares365,877

Combined PnL-$748.54

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,730

Combined PnL-$20.07

Over — 76%Under — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$122.7K	$122.2K	-$505.73	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
DA DaBossHoggCTR	Overavg 52.5¢	$20.0K	$19.4K	-$586.93	51% 218-208 (426)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	+$0	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 51¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	-$1.74	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 51¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	+$1.96	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$50.78	51% 4818-4541 (9359)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$133.71	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$198.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$64.65
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$2.9K	$3.6K	+$713	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$11.8K	$2.6K	+$124.99	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$558.7	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
RN1CTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$35.71	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.25	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.83	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
scootergeneCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$52.69	54% 380-324 (704)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	54% 733-618 (1351)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 47.5¢	$950	$750	-$200	83% 2683-538 (3221)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 43.6¢	$543.51	$734.71	+$191.2	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
tradecraftCTR	Overavg 48¢	$372.74	$368.6	-$4.14	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
heyboy800CTR	Overavg 53¢	$300	$288.68	-$11.32	61% 971-608 (1579)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 52.6¢	$216.7	$211.73	-$4.97	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 51.3¢	$198.02	$198.67	+$0.65	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$131.3	$130.56	-$0.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$66.72	$68.11	+$1.39
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 42¢	$98.04	$96.87	-$1.17	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 63.7¢	$91.8	$78.48	-$13.32	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
MA Markram<$100	Underavg 50¢	$72	$72	+$0	70% 2096-917 (3013)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 48¢	$54.85	$40.7	-$7.85	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$122,680.14

Value

$122.2K

PnL

-$505.73

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

DaBossHoggCTR

Over

Invested

$20,000

Value

$19.4K

PnL

-$586.93

Record

51%

218-208 (426)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$10,191.6

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$7,587.47

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$1.74

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$6,833.32

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.96

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,180

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$50.78

Record

51%

4818-4541 (9359)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,718.49

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$133.71

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Under$1,739.5947.1¢+$198.36

Over$1,978.949.1¢-$64.65

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$2,871

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$713

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$11,777.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$124.99

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,999.31

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$558.7

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,888.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$35.71

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,147.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.25

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,088.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.83

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

scootergeneCTR

Over

Invested

$1,032.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$52.69

Record

54%

380-324 (704)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

733-618 (1351)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$950

Value

$750

PnL

-$200

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$543.51

Value

$734.71

PnL

+$191.2

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

tradecraftCTR

Over

Invested

$372.74

Value

$368.6

PnL

-$4.14

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

heyboy800CTR

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$288.68

PnL

-$11.32

Record

61%

971-608 (1579)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$216.7

Value

$211.73

PnL

-$4.97

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$198.02

Value

$198.67

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

Over$131.351.3¢-$0.74

Under$66.7248¢+$1.39

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$98.04

Value

$96.87

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.8

Value

$78.48

PnL

-$13.32

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Markram<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$72

PnL

+$0

Record

70%

2096-917 (3013)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$54.85

Value

$40.7

PnL

-$7.85

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

19 of 25 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.