Consensus PnL $3.8K · win rate 62% (409–254, n=663) · PM monthly #989 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.8K
Record
409W / 254L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 663 settled
Batting Avg
38.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#682
Source
PM monthly #989
Record (90 d)
52/57 · 91%
Trades
680
Markets
959
Volume
$4.1M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Miami (FL) vs. Notre DameNotre Dame $47K · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (74% of 33)
Specialties
543 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 60¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 60% of 146 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
- MLB
+4 pts
side won 66% of 114 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +9%
- College Football
+8 pts
side won 74% of 47 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 25% of 20 at an average 44¢ entry (−19 pts against the price), ROI −27%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 20% of 74)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 37% of 103)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 65% of 149)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 86% of 217)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.