Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (44%) · Notre Dame at 72¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8

Miami (FL)28¢Notre Dame72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$312.95

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 71.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)28%

Notre Dame72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame4 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares20,150

Combined PnL+$783.07

Miami (FL)5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares11,761

Combined PnL-$470.12

Notre Dame — 44%Miami (FL) — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Notre Dame) and the top 1000 (8 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNotre Dame 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNotre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNotre Dame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (FL) 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Notre Dameavg 68.2¢	$10.5K	$11.0K	+$756.78	47% 511-584 (1095)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 65.6¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$36.48	54% 18234-15347 (33581)
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 65.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$178.13
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 33.3¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$214.61
65 6512395314597884CTR	Miami (FL)avg 33.1¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$420.46	51% 4775-4634 (9409)
VeryLucky888	Notre Dameavg 67.3¢	$6.3K	$2.1K	+$30.43	58% 46840-33772 (80612)
HI hi774c	Notre Dameavg 72¢	$956.57	$949.93	-$6.64	46% 5218-6066 (11284)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 65¢	$571.42	$576.6	+$7.67	51% 37791-37025 (74816)
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 65¢	$364.84	$401.32	+$42.1
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 33¢	$206.58	$175.28	-$34.43
FL FlaznorpCTR	Miami (FL)avg 28.6¢	$410.85	$401.79	-$9.06	51% 26028-24687 (50715)
NM NM-P	Notre Dameavg 71¢	$355	$357.5	+$2.5	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Miami (FL)avg 30.5¢	$189.07	$178.04	-$11.02	69% 7209-3191 (10400)
38 38791873984189CTR	Miami (FL)avg 35.4¢	$152.33	$125.11	-$27.21	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 31.7¢	$26.66	$24.31	-$2.35	58% 21295-15456 (36751)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Notre Dame

Invested

$10,452.06

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$756.78

Record

47%

511-584 (1095)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$2,797.08

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$36.48

Record

54%

18234-15347 (33581)

Both legs:

Notre Dame$1,557.465.6¢+$178.13

Miami (FL)$1,239.6833.3¢-$214.61

6512395314597884CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$3,030.13

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$420.46

Record

51%

4775-4634 (9409)

VeryLucky888

Notre Dame

Invested

$6,340

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.43

Record

58%

46840-33772 (80612)

hi774c

Notre Dame

Invested

$956.57

Value

$949.93

PnL

-$6.64

Record

46%

5218-6066 (11284)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$571.42

Value

$576.6

PnL

+$7.67

Record

51%

37791-37025 (74816)

Both legs:

Notre Dame$364.8465¢+$42.1

Miami (FL)$206.5833¢-$34.43

FlaznorpCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$410.85

Value

$401.79

PnL

-$9.06

Record

51%

26028-24687 (50715)

NM-P

Notre Dame

Invested

$355

Value

$357.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$189.07

Value

$178.04

PnL

-$11.02

Record

69%

7209-3191 (10400)

38791873984189CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$152.33

Value

$125.11

PnL

-$27.21

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$26.66

Value

$24.31

PnL

-$2.35

Record

58%

21295-15456 (36751)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Notre Dame) and the top 1000 (8 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNotre Dame 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNotre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNotre Dame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (FL) 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.