Consensus PnL $9.8K · win rate 18% (2–9, n=11) · PM monthly #975 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$9.8K
Record
2W / 9L
Win Rate
18.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2239
Source
PM monthly #975
Trades
7
Markets
15
Volume
$8.1K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 4 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 31¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 20¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $900 · now 20¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $500 · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 40% at an average entry of 35¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where FluffyMD2026's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 60%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.