Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

20 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $151K held · ends Nov 4

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$150.9K

Combined PnL

$7.0K

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 80.5¢

+18% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 40 top traders (50%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$107.8K

Total Shares133,152

Combined PnL+$17.6K

Yes20 traders

Total Value$43.1K

Total Shares228,039

Combined PnL$-10.7K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (18 on No) and the top 1000 (30 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 82% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Noavg 69.4¢	$24.6K	$51.2K	+$7.7K	71% 60-24 (84)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 21.5¢	$21.5K	$19.5K	$-2.0K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
BO botbotCTR	Yesavg 29.5¢	$16.0K	$9.8K	$-6.0K	43% 314-418 (732)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 70.4¢	$6.7K	$7.7K	+$1.1K	76% 145-47 (192)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 70¢	$6.3K	$7.3K	+$945	67% 751-378 (1129)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 56.3¢	$4.6K	$6.6K	+$2.1K	25% 185-564 (749)
DZ dzsibenaja	Noavg 60.6¢	$4.0K	$5.3K	+$1.4K	88% 171-24 (195)
ImJustKen	Noavg 64.5¢	$3.9K	$4.9K	+$1.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$6.0K	$4.8K	$-1.3K	35% 35-64 (99)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 68.3¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$650	69% 987-450 (1437)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 74.5¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$240	59% 1027-717 (1744)
MA Macks22	Noavg 67.1¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$517.03	78% 91-25 (116)
Chungvicular	Noavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$829.21	46% 49-57 (106)
Ryxon21	Noavg 73¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$254.92	71% 318-130 (448)
StupidMonkeyyy	Noavg 82¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$13.86	50% 146-145 (291)
wagwanshawty	Noavg 72¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$237.5	— 10-5 (15)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 60.6¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$416.56	85% 311-57 (368)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$99.94	57% 766-585 (1351)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$18.1	38% 20-32 (52)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 71.3¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$138.88	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$99.99	37% 566-944 (1510)
FL FluffyMD2026CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.3K	$900	-$275	— 2-9 (11)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$950	$900	+$25	36% 397-691 (1088)
LI lissartter	Noavg 70.5¢	$2.1K	$871.24	+$143.58	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
debased	Noavg 71¢	$693.54	$796.84	+$103.29	58% 2317-1682 (3999)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Invested

$24,574.47

Value

$51.2K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$21,500

Value

$19.5K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

botbotCTR

Yes

Invested

$16,038.3

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$6,685

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$6,300

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$945

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$4,577.89

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

dzsibenaja

Invested

$3,952.78

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

ImJustKen

Invested

$3,943.4

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,040.2

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$3,754.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$650

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$2,980

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$240

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Macks22

Invested

$2,486.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$517.03

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

Chungvicular

Invested

$1,960

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$829.21

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Ryxon21

Invested

$2,189.27

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$254.92

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

StupidMonkeyyy

Invested

$2,273.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$13.86

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

wagwanshawty

Invested

$1,787.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$237.5

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$1,551.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$416.56

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,950

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$99.94

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,495.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$18.1

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,357.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$138.88

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,333.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$99.99

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

FluffyMD2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,250

Value

$900

PnL

-$275

Record

—

2-9 (11)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$950

Value

$900

PnL

+$25

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

lissartter

Invested

$2,073.37

Value

$871.24

PnL

+$143.58

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

debased

Invested

$693.54

Value

$796.84

PnL

+$103.29

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 40 top traders (50%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (18 on No) and the top 1000 (30 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 82% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.