Consensus PnL -$19K · win rate 50% (513–517, n=1030) · PM monthly #853 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-19.1K
Record
513W / 517L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1030 settled
Batting Avg
67.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1171
Source
PM monthly #853
Record (90 d)
309/397 · 78%
Trades
6,419
Markets
1,119
Volume
$2.3M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 $1.1K · now 55¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Karmine Corp)
Specialties
672 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 50¢- Esports
+25 pts
side won 74% of 435 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +16%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 74% of 149 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +24%
- College Football
+31 pts
side won 85% of 27 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 40% of 45)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 71% of 305)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 81% of 280)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 90% of 42)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.