SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$11.2K
$641.1
94.1¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 93.8¢ | $7.5K | $8.0K | +$496.39 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
0F 0F62 | Overavg 95¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$156.44 | 53% 2098-1864 (3962) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $84.04 | $89.36 | +$5.32 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $77.6 | $82.51 | -$2.06 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 93.6¢ | $58.97 | $59.25 | +$4.03 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $19.13 | $0.12 | -$19.01 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
Invested
$7,542.12
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$496.39
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$3,002.25
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$156.44
Record
53%
2098-1864 (3962)
Invested
$84.04
Value
$89.36
PnL
+$5.32
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
Invested
$77.6
Value
$82.51
PnL
-$2.06
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$58.97
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$4.03
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$19.13
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$19.01
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.