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Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 1 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5

1 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Over (4%) · Over at 11¢ · $127K held · ended Nov 1

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

24

Over 4%

Total Value

$126.7K

Combined PnL

$-31.3K

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

  • Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
  • Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
  • Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 24 top traders (4%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%
Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader
Total Value$41.0K
Total Shares178,333
Combined PnL$-68.6K
Under23 traders
Total Value$85.7K
Total Shares105,983
Combined PnL+$37.3K
Over — 4%Under — 96%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

5% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians
whaleUnder 86% · 7
Diverging
sharpUnder 100% · 2
Diverging
ctrUnder 100% · 15
Diverging
Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3
Diverging
Top 1000Under 95% · 20
Diverging
NB
nb1985CTR
Over

Invested

$90,000

Value

$41.0K

PnL

$-68.6K

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

RN1
Under

Invested

$16,623.38

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0X
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
Under

Invested

$8,244.29

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

KY
Kyn008
Under

Invested

$6,769.35

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

GO
GoalLineGhost
Under

Invested

$4,469.54

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

WE
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
Under

Invested

$2,850

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

us391
Under

Invested

$2,120.67

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

RA
rabbitfoot1
Under

Invested

$1,381.15

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

1155-1007 (2162)

HRTrading
Under

Invested

$4,630.91

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

VeryLucky888
Under

Invested

$1,255

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$507.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

UP
UpTheBlues
Under

Invested

$1,227.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$425.52

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

SN
SnakeBall
Under

Invested

$699.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$540.41

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

AN
AnonymousUsername
Under

Invested

$697.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$368.51

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

AN
Anon455
Under

Invested

$378.05

Value

$587.61

PnL

+$209.55

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

0xheavy888
Under

Invested

$156

Value

$308

PnL

+$152

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

GH
ghorrock
Under

Invested

$152.81

Value

$236.76

PnL

+$88.29

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

LE
LeLynxMalynx
Under

Invested

$160.4

Value

$171.65

PnL

+$11.25

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

FO
Forecastication2
Under

Invested

$94.34

Value

$137.06

PnL

+$42.72

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LU
LuckyLoo<$100
Under

Invested

$41.92

Value

$63.14

PnL

+$6.87

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

LO
lonmi2511<$100
Under

Invested

$40.88

Value

$62.59

PnL

+$7.49

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

FO
foooool<$100
Under

Invested

$24.89

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

0X
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100
Under

Invested

$5

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$2.65

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

OM
omnibus-076daa<$100
Under

Invested

$4.21

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$3.6

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

AM
ameisgoat11<$100
Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$1.58

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

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EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$732.72
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x75ea05c7...d65fb4
Slug
sea-fro-tor-2026-11-01-total-3pt5

Traders in this Market

NB

nb1985

CTR

Over — $41.0K

$-68.6K

RN1

Under — $26.8K

+$10.5K
0X

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under — $16.7K

+$8.5K
KY

Kyn008

Under — $13.7K

+$6.9K
GO

GoalLineGhost

Under — $8.8K

+$4.3K
WE

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under — $4.5K

+$1.6K

us391

Under — $3.1K

+$1.0K
RA

rabbitfoot1

Under — $2.5K

+$1.1K

HRTrading

Under — $2.3K

+$1.0K

VeryLucky888

Under — $1.8K

+$507.5
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