Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$7.6K

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 99.7¢

+60% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$30.1K

Total Shares30,705

Combined PnL+$7.7K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$271.11

Total Shares2,752

Combined PnL-$2.64

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 67.1¢	$6.8K	$9.8K	+$3.1K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 61.8¢	$6.0K	$9.0K	+$3.0K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
RN1	Noavg 65.4¢	$5.4K	$4.7K	-$733.34	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 56¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$696.25	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 50.7¢	$658.35	$1.2K	+$465.49	50% 19439-19808 (39247)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 32.1¢	$266.14	$672.01	+$415.76	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
FO foooool	Noavg 65.6¢	$473.2	$648.6	+$175.4	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 82.5¢	$431.3	$416.81	-$14.5	71% 1381-572 (1953)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$402.16	$285.11	-$117.05	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$178.31	$227.17	+$48.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.8¢	$223.84	$57.94	-$165.9
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 57¢	$155.73	$264.31	+$80.7	59% 30673-21383 (52056)
RO Rocko33	Noavg 64.9¢	$172.36	$223.1	+$50.74	63% 1197-693 (1890)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 32¢	$79.5	$208.69	+$129.19	49% 167-174 (341)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 88¢	$200	$197.83	-$2.17	67% 23462-11817 (35279)
CA Cannae	Noavg 31.2¢	$64.27	$173.04	+$108.77	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
BE Betziko	Noavg 51.6¢	$95.06	$170.5	+$75.44	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 32¢	$64	$168	+$104	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
0010001000001100CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$1.0K	$152.13	+$47.33	65% 1369-739 (2108)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$65.06	$82.88	+$17.82	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
SocialistaCTR	Yesavg 68¢	$69.96	$67.84	-$2.12	63% 2723-1610 (4333)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$36.91	$54.16	+$13.64	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$99	$51.15	-$47.85	58% 10657-7637 (18294)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$6,789.43

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,992.03

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

RN1

Invested

$5,449.55

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$733.34

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,190.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$696.25

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$658.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$465.49

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$266.14

Value

$672.01

PnL

+$415.76

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

foooool

Invested

$473.2

Value

$648.6

PnL

+$175.4

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

SharkVision

Invested

$431.3

Value

$416.81

PnL

-$14.5

Record

71%

1381-572 (1953)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$402.16

Value

$285.11

PnL

-$117.05

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Both legs:

No$178.3171.8¢+$48.85

Yes$223.8432.8¢-$165.9

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$155.73

Value

$264.31

PnL

+$80.7

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

Rocko33

Invested

$172.36

Value

$223.1

PnL

+$50.74

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$79.5

Value

$208.69

PnL

+$129.19

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

pauleta23

Invested

$200

Value

$197.83

PnL

-$2.17

Record

67%

23462-11817 (35279)

Cannae

Invested

$64.27

Value

$173.04

PnL

+$108.77

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

Betziko

Invested

$95.06

Value

$170.5

PnL

+$75.44

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$64

Value

$168

PnL

+$104

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

0010001000001100CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,025.55

Value

$152.13

PnL

+$47.33

Record

65%

1369-739 (2108)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$65.06

Value

$82.88

PnL

+$17.82

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

SocialistaCTR

Yes

Invested

$69.96

Value

$67.84

PnL

-$2.12

Record

63%

2723-1610 (4333)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$36.91

Value

$54.16

PnL

+$13.64

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99

Value

$51.15

PnL

-$47.85

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.