Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

22 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 75¢ · $147K held · ends Nov 4

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$147.1K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 74.5¢

-7% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 38 top traders (58%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$112.9K

Total Shares151,265

Combined PnL$-8.5K

No16 traders

Total Value$34.2K

Total Shares136,754

Combined PnL+$11.6K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 85.6¢	$36.4K	$31.7K	$-4.7K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
RI Richidd	Yesavg 75.2¢	$30.3K	$30.0K	-$272.36	46% 47-56 (103)
gopfan2	Yesavg 84¢	$16.8K	$15.0K	$-1.8K	51% 901-875 (1776)
mombilCTR	Noavg 18.6¢	$6.0K	$8.1K	+$2.1K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
SU supersmardCTR	Noavg 13.5¢	$4.1K	$7.6K	+$3.5K	39% 46-71 (117)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 76.4¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$177.71	58% 182-132 (314)
zb8	Yesavg 79¢	$6.3K	$6.0K	-$360	53% 641-561 (1202)
Valen9CTR	Noavg 13.8¢	$2.8K	$5.1K	+$2.3K	60% 406-274 (680)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 78.1¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$197.49	72% 176-70 (246)
TR troim	Yesavg 74¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$50	36% 397-691 (1088)
RA RailcoolCTR	Noavg 13¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.8K	51% 86-81 (167)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 73.4¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$70.83	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 23.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$62.32	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PI piepedCTR	Noavg 20¢	$1.0K	$2.3K	+$495.82	42% 71-100 (171)
SE segment3	Yesavg 84¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$285	55% 11-9 (20)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 17¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$718.27	20% 108-423 (531)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 73¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$27.99	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
FB fbet	Yesavg 85¢	$441.99	$2.0K	-$268.5	57% 21-16 (37)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 85.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$189.31	57% 1113-837 (1950)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 80.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$113.57	94% 442-28 (470)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 83.6¢	$877.5	$787.5	-$90	77% 830-249 (1079)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$382	$775	+$393	77% 1204-366 (1570)
probabilityCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$438.86	$627.54	+$188.73	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
kekkone	Yesavg 71.8¢	$431	$450	+$19	73% 1124-417 (1541)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 78¢	$467.22	$449.25	-$20.97	50% 415-417 (832)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$36,418.46

Value

$31.7K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

Richidd

Yes

Invested

$30,279.95

Value

$30.0K

PnL

-$272.36

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

gopfan2

Yes

Invested

$16,799.99

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

mombilCTR

Invested

$6,041.77

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

supersmardCTR

Invested

$4,095.67

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$7,028.72

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$177.71

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

zb8

Yes

Invested

$6,320

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$360

Record

53%

641-561 (1202)

Valen9CTR

Invested

$2,822.55

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$4,294.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$197.49

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

troim

Yes

Invested

$3,700

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$50

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

RailcoolCTR

Invested

$1,950

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$3,210.17

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$70.83

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$2,856.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$62.32

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

piepedCTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$495.82

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

segment3

Yes

Invested

$2,520

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$285

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$1,526.31

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$718.27

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$2,136.82

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$27.99

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

fbet

Yes

Invested

$441.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$268.5

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$1,648.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$189.31

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,557.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$113.57

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$877.5

Value

$787.5

PnL

-$90

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

randomWalkingShrimpCTR

Invested

$382

Value

$775

PnL

+$393

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

probabilityCTR

Invested

$438.86

Value

$627.54

PnL

+$188.73

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

kekkone

Yes

Invested

$431

Value

$450

PnL

+$19

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$467.22

Value

$449.25

PnL

-$20.97

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 38 top traders (58%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.