Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

19 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 52¢ · $165K held · ends Nov 4

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$165.3K

Combined PnL

$31.5K

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 51.5¢

+54% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$125.0K

Total Shares244,571

Combined PnL+$43.4K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$40.4K

Total Shares83,233

Combined PnL$-11.9K

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

34 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 55% · 11

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 28

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 29¢	$14.5K	$25.5K	+$11.3K	80% 437-110 (547)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 33.2¢	$15.7K	$24.3K	+$8.6K	61% 203-132 (335)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 62¢	$24.0K	$18.8K	$-5.2K	35% 35-64 (99)
SU supersmard	Noavg 36¢	$13.2K	$18.7K	+$5.7K	39% 46-71 (117)
HD HD45	Noavg 30¢	$1.3K	$14.7K	+$6.0K	— 10-8 (18)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 72.6¢	$16.2K	$10.8K	$-5.4K	47% 474-534 (1008)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 33.4¢	$6.7K	$10.0K	+$3.3K	69% 987-450 (1437)
Valen9	Noavg 37.8¢	$4.5K	$6.1K	+$1.6K	60% 406-274 (680)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Noavg 29.1¢	$3.0K	$5.2K	+$2.3K	— 16-3 (19)
CO cowcat	Noavg 49.8¢	$5.7K	$5.1K	+$38.27	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
BigRabbit	Noavg 25.9¢	$2.6K	$5.1K	+$2.6K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 42.8¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$559.69	36% 190-333 (523)
mrworldwide	Noavg 38.3¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$437.21	69% 804-359 (1163)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 56.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$25	54% 344-290 (634)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 62¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$621.79	53% 915-808 (1723)
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$20.07	44% 20-25 (45)
BR brteCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15	— 10-6 (16)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR	Yesavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$232.43	55% 78-65 (143)
RA Railcool	Noavg 26¢	$585.08	$1.1K	+$573.82	51% 86-81 (167)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 54.4¢	$948.46	$897.48	-$50.99	58% 182-132 (314)
JJo	Noavg 41.1¢	$495	$510	+$15	66% 944-496 (1440)
TH TheFOMCGamblerCTR	Yesavg 78.9¢	$669.54	$490.97	-$313.34	76% 102-32 (134)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 29.3¢	$286.65	$486.03	+$211.5	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$500	$485	-$15	57% 766-585 (1351)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Noavg 39¢	$341.23	$446.22	+$109.37	62% 45-28 (73)

Kevindoto

Invested

$14,500

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$11.3K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$15,687.65

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$24,047.7

Value

$18.8K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

supersmard

Invested

$13,198.16

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

HD45

Invested

$1,315.38

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

—

10-8 (18)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$16,192.59

Value

$10.8K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$6,734.54

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Valen9

Invested

$4,513.83

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680

Invested

$2,965.45

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

cowcat

Invested

$5,740.83

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$38.27

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

BigRabbit

Invested

$2,591.43

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$2,742.65

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$559.69

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

mrworldwide

Invested

$2,360.75

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$437.21

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,855.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$621.79

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

SmallFishGamblerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,967

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20.07

Record

44%

20-25 (45)

brteCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15

Record

—

10-6 (16)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,419.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$232.43

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

Railcool

Invested

$585.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$573.82

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$948.46

Value

$897.48

PnL

-$50.99

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

JJo

Invested

$495

Value

$510

PnL

+$15

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

TheFOMCGamblerCTR

Yes

Invested

$669.54

Value

$490.97

PnL

-$313.34

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$286.65

Value

$486.03

PnL

+$211.5

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$485

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Loyalty-Crash

Invested

$341.23

Value

$446.22

PnL

+$109.37

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

34 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 55% · 11

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 28

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.5%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.