Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

10 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 75¢ · $607K held · ends Nov 3

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$606.8K

Combined PnL

-$132.15

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 25 top traders (40%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$448.1K

Total Shares601,034

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$158.7K

Total Shares634,126

Combined PnL+$6.3K

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Noavg 75.5¢	$416.2K	$410.4K	$-5.7K	43% 561-738 (1299)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$53.7K	$59.0K	+$4.1K	56% 973-770 (1743)
HorribleWorkCTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$53.7K	$54.7K	-$28.91	60% 465-309 (774)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$25.3K	$27.5K	+$1.6K	36% 190-333 (523)
LO Logan.	Noavg 75¢	$11.3K	$11.2K	-$75	41% 648-925 (1573)
LI lissartter	Noavg 75.8¢	$9.8K	$9.6K	-$171.48	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
paddaa	Noavg 78.1¢	$9.2K	$9.0K	-$305.65	56% 836-645 (1481)
8D 8DDDCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$169.32	53% 28-25 (53)
AN anoin123	Noavg 77¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$75	47% 476-535 (1011)
CO cocos228CTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$406.02	72% 68-27 (95)
88 881112	Noavg 76.3¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$23.08	38% 567-944 (1511)
HD HD45CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$35	— 10-8 (18)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 78.1¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$51.52	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$25	42% 71-100 (171)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$25	36% 397-691 (1088)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$994.33	$1.1K	+$71.25	66% 944-496 (1440)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.7¢	$274.41	$272.44	-$1.97	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
wagwanshawtyCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$250	$250	-$5	— 10-5 (15)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$250	$245	-$5	38% 20-32 (52)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$52.59	$45.07	-$3.55	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 75¢	$30	$30.4	+$0.2	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$27.01	$27.01	+$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10.5	$10.5	-$0.21	78% 283-79 (362)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$5.5	$5.98	+$0.36	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1	$1	-$0.02	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

BreakTheBank

Invested

$416,175.12

Value

$410.4K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$53,700

Value

$59.0K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

HorribleWorkCTR

Yes

Invested

$53,739.46

Value

$54.7K

PnL

-$28.91

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$25,300

Value

$27.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Logan.

Invested

$11,250

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$75

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

lissartter

Invested

$9,798.33

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$171.48

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

paddaa

Invested

$9,229

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$305.65

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

8DDDCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,465.88

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$169.32

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

anoin123

Invested

$3,849.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$75

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

cocos228CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,500

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$406.02

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

881112

Invested

$2,255.96

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$23.08

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

HD45CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$35

Record

—

10-8 (18)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$1,571.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$51.52

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$994.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$71.25

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$274.41

Value

$272.44

PnL

-$1.97

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

wagwanshawtyCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$250

PnL

-$5

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$245

PnL

-$5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.59

Value

$45.07

PnL

-$3.55

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.01

Value

$27.01

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.21

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.36

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 25 top traders (40%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.