Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

16 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 75¢ · $109K held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$109.2K

Combined PnL

$13.5K

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 74.5¢

-11% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 38 top traders (42%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$52.2K

Total Shares70,027

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$57.1K

Total Shares223,786

Combined PnL+$19.9K

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 58% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 64% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 65% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 52% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 82.9¢	$18.2K	$16.4K	$-1.8K	87% 179-26 (205)
WA wan123	Noavg 84¢	$18.2K	$16.1K	$-2.1K	39% 196-304 (500)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$7.0K	$12.8K	+$5.8K	51% 86-81 (167)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$7.1K	$12.7K	+$5.7K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$5.0K	$6.4K	+$1.4K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
AN anoin123	Noavg 86.4¢	$6.6K	$5.7K	-$905.14	47% 474-534 (1008)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$2.6K	$4.8K	+$2.2K	60% 406-274 (680)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$1.9K	$3.8K	+$1.9K	39% 46-71 (117)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$98.6	62% 45-28 (73)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 85.5¢	$3.5K	$3.0K	-$445.52	57% 766-585 (1351)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 79.9¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$198.18	94% 442-28 (470)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 88.1¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$474.5	85% 311-57 (368)
BA balerinacapuchina	Noavg 79¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$135	72% 176-70 (246)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$238.37	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$665.17	20% 108-423 (531)
JSG3CTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$87.48	58% 14-10 (24)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$775	$1.3K	+$500	65% 862-465 (1327)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$520	$1.0K	+$500	36% 190-333 (523)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$956.07	$921.9	-$34.16	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
debased	Noavg 80¢	$892.08	$830.75	-$61.33	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
GollumGekko	Noavg 83¢	$830	$745	-$85	68% 2074-957 (3031)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 81¢	$809.99	$744.99	-$65	58% 182-132 (314)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$288.67	$699.48	+$410.81	69% 987-450 (1437)
HD HD45CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$565.51	$626.98	+$61.47	— 10-8 (18)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$193.69	$581.34	+$387.65	53% 1560-1362 (2922)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$18,229.98

Value

$16.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

wan123

Invested

$18,207.8

Value

$16.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,000

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,058.06

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,961.39

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

anoin123

Invested

$6,565.66

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$905.14

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,613.4

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,950

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,477.3

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$98.6

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$3,452.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$445.52

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

HotDogs

Invested

$2,908.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$198.18

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$3,066.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$474.5

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

balerinacapuchina

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$135

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,950

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$238.37

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,323.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$665.17

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

JSG3CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$87.48

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$775

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$500

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$520

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$500

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$956.07

Value

$921.9

PnL

-$34.16

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

debased

Invested

$892.08

Value

$830.75

PnL

-$61.33

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

GollumGekko

Invested

$830

Value

$745

PnL

-$85

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$809.99

Value

$744.99

PnL

-$65

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.67

Value

$699.48

PnL

+$410.81

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

HD45CTR

Yes

Invested

$565.51

Value

$626.98

PnL

+$61.47

Record

—

10-8 (18)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.69

Value

$581.34

PnL

+$387.65

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 38 top traders (42%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 58% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 64% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 65% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 52% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.