Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 76% (19–6, n=25) · was PM monthly #803 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.8K
Record
19W / 6L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 25 settled
Batting Avg
65.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#558
Source
PM monthly #803 + pinned
Trades
805
Markets
39
Volume
$928.9K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $22K · now 23¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.9K · now 28¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $4.0K · now 28¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No $199 · now 30¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
25 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 70¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Imbleciar's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 83% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.