Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

25 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 73¢ · $182K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 61%

Total Value

$181.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 73%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 41 top traders (61%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No25 traders

Total Value$133.6K

Total Shares183,207

Combined PnL-$914.73

Yes16 traders

Total Value$48.0K

Total Shares174,387

Combined PnL+$2.1K

No — 61%Yes — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

173 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrYes 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 68% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Noavg 74¢	$7.2K	$50.3K	$-1.0K	71% 60-24 (84)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 25.4¢	$25.7K	$27.9K	+$2.1K	43% 561-738 (1299)
gopfan2	Noavg 72.7¢	$16.8K	$16.9K	-$38.48	51% 901-875 (1776)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 70.2¢	$14.1K	$14.6K	+$466.87	38% 20-32 (52)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 72¢	$13.3K	$13.5K	+$92.43	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
IM ImbleciarCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$9.7K	$9.9K	+$180	73% 22-8 (30)
AllByMyseIf	Noavg 78¢	$9.4K	$8.8K	-$659.97	65% 671-357 (1028)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Noavg 70¢	$7.9K	$8.3K	+$283.05	67% 506-251 (757)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$56.76	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
mountaindewd	Noavg 73¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$24.92	54% 344-290 (634)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 73¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$21.25	69% 156-69 (225)
Mr-Krabs	Noavg 74.8¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$87.44	78% 573-165 (738)
scottilicious	Noavg 73¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15.05	82% 945-201 (1146)
SE segment3	Noavg 74¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$45	55% 11-9 (20)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 75.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$83.49	77% 830-249 (1079)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 67.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$61.69	57% 766-585 (1351)
ME Melody626	Noavg 72¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.03	58% 705-521 (1226)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$67.18	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$975.75	$993.82	+$18.07	55% 1191-966 (2157)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$818.95	$866.19	+$47.25	68% 2074-957 (3031)
bosshog	Noavg 63¢	$630	$730	+$95	72% 1052-415 (1467)
LI lissartter	Noavg 73.3¢	$1.9K	$724.87	-$14.15	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
LE legioncreCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$560	$550	-$10	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$769.62	$503.35	-$266.26	54% 325-279 (604)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 73¢	$479.46	$475.96	-$3.5	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Invested

$7,221.69

Value

$50.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,725.81

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

gopfan2

Invested

$16,814.89

Value

$16.9K

PnL

-$38.48

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$14,102.08

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$466.87

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$13,309.43

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$92.43

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

ImbleciarCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,720

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$180

Record

73%

22-8 (30)

AllByMyseIf

Invested

$9,360

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$659.97

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Invested

$7,925.35

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$283.05

Record

67%

506-251 (757)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,595.7

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$56.76

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

mountaindewd

Invested

$3,649.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$24.92

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$2,966.26

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$21.25

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Mr-Krabs

Invested

$2,799.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$87.44

Record

78%

573-165 (738)

scottilicious

Invested

$2,198.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15.05

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

segment3

Invested

$2,219.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$45

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$1,616.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$83.49

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$1,469.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$61.69

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Melody626

Invested

$1,156.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.03

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,101.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$67.18

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$975.75

Value

$993.82

PnL

+$18.07

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$818.95

Value

$866.19

PnL

+$47.25

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

bosshog

Invested

$630

Value

$730

PnL

+$95

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

lissartter

Invested

$1,889.74

Value

$724.87

PnL

-$14.15

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

legioncreCTR

Yes

Invested

$560

Value

$550

PnL

-$10

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$769.62

Value

$503.35

PnL

-$266.26

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$479.46

Value

$475.96

PnL

-$3.5

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 73%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 41 top traders (61%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

173 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 12

Aligned

ctrYes 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 68% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.3%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.