2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

4 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 78¢ · $433K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$432.7K

Combined PnL

$-9.4K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 77.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 37 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$265.4K

Total Shares342,494

Combined PnL+$22.2K

Yes33 traders

Total Value$163.4K

Total Shares740,149

Combined PnL$-31.6K

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 17

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 7

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 85% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 94% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Noavg 70.9¢	$231.7K	$253.4K	+$21.7K	43% 561-738 (1299)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$28.0K	$22.5K	$-5.5K	39% 196-304 (500)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$23.5K	$22.0K	$-1.5K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ST StonktraderCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$29.0K	$22.0K	$-6.5K	74% 168-59 (227)
IM ImbleciarCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$25.0K	$22.0K	$-2.5K	73% 22-8 (30)
HorribleWorkCTR	Yesavg 23.8¢	$14.9K	$13.8K	-$814.07	60% 465-309 (774)
LI lissartter	Noavg 74.2¢	$10.6K	$11.1K	+$485.79	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
MA marchettamakerCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$14.5K	$11.0K	$-3.3K	28% 15-39 (54)
BO botbotCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$12.0K	$11.0K	-$750	43% 314-418 (732)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 35.2¢	$13.2K	$9.4K	$-3.8K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$8.4K	$6.6K	$-1.8K	57% 766-585 (1351)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$5.5K	$5.2K	-$185.11	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
EV EV-AndarsCTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$419.15	45% 34-41 (75)
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	+$69.11	38% 20-32 (52)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.3¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$39.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$29.93
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$3.6K	$2.8K	-$812.5	50% 447-446 (893)
HI hideoCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$5.0K	$2.8K	$-2.2K	76% 253-81 (334)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$464.08	63% 353-204 (557)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$472.18	46% 271-319 (590)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 27.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$237.49	36% 397-691 (1088)
debased	Noavg 65.9¢	$827.69	$855.47	+$27.78	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$1.2K	$778.8	-$462.9	60% 1348-884 (2232)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 33.6¢	$826.33	$765.4	-$60.94	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$1.5K	$499.52	+$510.87	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$451.25	$397.1	-$45.13	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$935.59	$222.42	-$96.64	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

BreakTheBank

Invested

$231,728.36

Value

$253.4K

PnL

+$21.7K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$27,999.35

Value

$22.5K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$23,528.37

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

StonktraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$29,000

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

74%

168-59 (227)

ImbleciarCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,000

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

73%

22-8 (30)

HorribleWorkCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,943.79

Value

$13.8K

PnL

-$814.07

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

lissartter

Invested

$10,589.57

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$485.79

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

marchettamakerCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,500

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

28%

15-39 (54)

botbotCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,999.99

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$750

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,210.63

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,409.09

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,517

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$185.11

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

EV-AndarsCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,875

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$419.15

Record

45%

34-41 (75)

Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100

Invested

$4,277.97

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$69.11

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Both legs:

No$2,588.6776.3¢+$39.17

Yes$1,314.0522.5¢+$29.93

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,625

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$812.5

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

hideoCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

76%

253-81 (334)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,372.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$464.08

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,888.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$472.18

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,337.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$237.49

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

debased

Invested

$827.69

Value

$855.47

PnL

+$27.78

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,241.7

Value

$778.8

PnL

-$462.9

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$826.33

Value

$765.4

PnL

-$60.94

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,541.69

Value

$499.52

PnL

+$510.87

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$451.25

Value

$397.1

PnL

-$45.13

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$935.59

Value

$222.42

PnL

-$96.64

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 37 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 17

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 7

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 85% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 94% · 16

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.