Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 28¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$6.7K
-$679.49
30.3¢ → 27.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
473h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM ImbleciarCTR | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $4.5K | $4.0K | -$503.48 | 73% 22-8 (30) |
GO gotozer0CTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$2.02 | 67% 305-153 (458) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $882.33 | $799.25 | -$83.08 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $370.49 | $327.45 | -$43.03 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
C0 C03BCTR | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $280.52 | $232.4 | -$52.27 | 85% 719-126 (845) |
 MisTKy<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $4.82 | $5.15 | +$0.35 | 71% 568-236 (804) |
Invested
$4,522.47
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$503.48
Record
73%
22-8 (30)
Invested
$1,331.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$2.02
Record
67%
305-153 (458)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$882.33
Value
$799.25
PnL
-$83.08
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$370.49
Value
$327.45
PnL
-$43.03
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$280.52
Value
$232.4
PnL
-$52.27
Record
85%
719-126 (845)
MisTKy<$100Invested
$4.82
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.35
Record
71%
568-236 (804)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.