Consensus PnL -$77K · win rate 42% (185–251, n=436) · was PM monthly #940 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-77.3K
Record
185W / 251L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 436 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2065
Source
PM monthly #940
Trades
343
Markets
484
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $6.0K · now 0¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5Under $2 · now 17¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
204 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 64¢- Esports
+34 pts
side won 85% of 133 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +39%
- Crypto
+32 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +34%
- Soccer
+8 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 91% of 35 at an average 92¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 60% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 82% of 51)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 94% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 99% of 87)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.