Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 67%
$5.8K
-$34.62
90.4¢ → 83¢
-8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
272h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJ | Overavg 90¢ | $3.6K | $3.3K | -$277.71 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 94¢ | $400 | $1.1K | -$145.69 | 77% 3443-1052 (4495) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 10.5¢ | $540.6 | $876.12 | +$335.52 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 94¢ | $200 | $176.6 | -$23.4 | 63% 1200-693 (1893) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 11¢ | $100 | $154.55 | +$54.55 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 91.9¢ | $124.01 | $112.05 | -$11.96 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $54.57 | $90.59 | +$36.02 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $20 | $17.66 | -$2.34 | 67% 23466-11821 (35287) |
 KARTERORCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.3 | $1.7 | +$0.4 | 42% 174-244 (418) |
Invested
$3,570.55
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$277.71
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
Invested
$400
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$145.69
Record
77%
3443-1052 (4495)
Invested
$540.6
Value
$876.12
PnL
+$335.52
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$200
Value
$176.6
PnL
-$23.4
Record
63%
1200-693 (1893)
Invested
$100
Value
$154.55
PnL
+$54.55
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$124.01
Value
$112.05
PnL
-$11.96
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$54.57
Value
$90.59
PnL
+$36.02
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$20
Value
$17.66
PnL
-$2.34
Record
67%
23466-11821 (35287)
KARTERORCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.4
Record
42%
174-244 (418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.