Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 52% (285–263, n=548) · was PM monthly #924 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$42.6K
Record
285W / 263L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 548 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1633
Source
PM monthly #924
Trades
770
Markets
808
Volume
$480.0K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit $5.8K · now 94¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (47% of 81)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $51 · now 83¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $42 · now 73¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
Specialties
424 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 49¢- Esports
+14 pts
side won 61% of 285 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +31%
- Elections
+26 pts
side won 75% of 16 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +35%
- NBA
+5 pts
side won 61% of 18 · avg entry 56¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 14% of 21 at an average 32¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 21% of 85)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 47% of 119)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 72% of 166)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 91% of 54)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.