Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

19 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 83¢ · $94K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$93.9K

Combined PnL

$7.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 82.5¢

+53% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$81.1K

Total Shares98,520

Combined PnL+$27.4K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares70,682

Combined PnL$-19.9K

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 15

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 52% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 50.8¢	$20.5K	$33.3K	+$12.8K	47% 476-535 (1011)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 56.5¢	$13.4K	$18.8K	+$5.7K	77% 632-185 (817)
FL flawfence	Noavg 53.6¢	$11.4K	$17.5K	+$6.1K	46% 271-319 (590)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 45.4¢	$11.7K	$4.5K	$-7.2K	39% 196-304 (500)
MEPP	Noavg 58¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$980	64% 633-352 (985)
WordleAddictCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$7.3K	$2.8K	$-4.5K	61% 941-614 (1555)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 47.6¢	$5.1K	$1.9K	$-3.1K	71% 611-251 (862)
88 881112	Noavg 59.7¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$515.23	38% 567-944 (1511)
Cungly	Noavg 75.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$104.46	63% 672-398 (1070)
siick	Noavg 58.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$26.73	57% 768-580 (1348)
Zaratustra	Noavg 53¢	$179.14	$1.1K	+$345.28	62% 351-214 (565)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$2.8K	$1.0K	$-1.2K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
TR troim	Noavg 61¢	$609.99	$819.98	+$215	36% 397-691 (1088)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$1.4K	$644.52	-$780.45	66% 944-496 (1440)
Gohst	Noavg 30.4¢	$181.82	$490.44	+$305.63	49% 738-770 (1508)
ImbaferCTR	Yesavg 51.8¢	$1.3K	$484.73	-$807.71	56% 238-189 (427)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 50.8¢	$1.1K	$392.56	-$720.52	51% 901-875 (1776)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$759.98	$369.99	-$389.99	57% 12-9 (21)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 49.9¢	$200.76	$348.98	+$148.23	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 58.3¢	$875	$277.5	-$612.5	61% 839-544 (1383)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 52.5¢	$630.72	$231.05	-$399.57	54% 344-290 (634)
XieGuangKun	Noavg 65¢	$130	$164	+$33	51% 367-349 (716)
TT tttt123	Noavg 61.7¢	$121.23	$164	+$42.76	72% 1535-585 (2120)
TheKinginYellow	Noavg 63¢	$100	$130.16	+$29.37	68% 830-398 (1228)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 44.3¢	$302.36	$124.48	-$177.88	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

anoin123

Invested

$20,492.01

Value

$33.3K

PnL

+$12.8K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

alwaysOn

Invested

$13,380.91

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

flawfence

Invested

$11,409.75

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,667.18

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

MEPP

Invested

$2,320

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$980

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

WordleAddictCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,286.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,056.35

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

71%

611-251 (862)

881112

Invested

$1,425.83

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$515.23

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Cungly

Invested

$1,270.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$104.46

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

siick

Invested

$1,328.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$26.73

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Zaratustra

Invested

$179.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$345.28

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,784.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

troim

Invested

$609.99

Value

$819.98

PnL

+$215

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,424.97

Value

$644.52

PnL

-$780.45

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

Gohst

Invested

$181.82

Value

$490.44

PnL

+$305.63

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

ImbaferCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,292.44

Value

$484.73

PnL

-$807.71

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.08

Value

$392.56

PnL

-$720.52

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$759.98

Value

$369.99

PnL

-$389.99

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$200.76

Value

$348.98

PnL

+$148.23

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$875

Value

$277.5

PnL

-$612.5

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$630.72

Value

$231.05

PnL

-$399.57

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

XieGuangKun

Invested

$130

Value

$164

PnL

+$33

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

tttt123

Invested

$121.23

Value

$164

PnL

+$42.76

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

TheKinginYellow

Invested

$100

Value

$130.16

PnL

+$29.37

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$302.36

Value

$124.48

PnL

-$177.88

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 15

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 52% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.