Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 57% (1101–832, n=1933) · was PM monthly #863 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$15.3K
Record
1101W / 832L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 1933 settled
Batting Avg
55.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1366
Source
PM monthly #863
Record (90 d)
521/563 · 93%
Trades
2,139
Markets
2,651
Volume
$5.0M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFURIA $2.3K · now 63¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (FaZe)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $1.4K · now 55¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (71% of 50)
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)FURIA $1.2K · now 0¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (FaZe)
Specialties
2,149 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 58¢- Esports
+15 pts
side won 74% of 854 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +12%
- Tennis
+11 pts
side won 70% of 539 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +9%
- Other Sports
+14 pts
side won 74% of 62 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 51% of 61 at an average 55¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 27% of 82)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 53% of 517)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 70% of 1077)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 84% of 473)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.