Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)

20 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (65%) · FaZe at 57¢ · $163K held · ends Nov 2

FURIA43¢FaZe57¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FaZe

Consensus Traders

FaZe 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$162.8K

Combined PnL

$855.91

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 57.5¢

+2% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralFaZe at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FaZe

20 of 31 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA43%

FaZe57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FaZe20 traders

Total Value$120.0K

Total Shares212,650

Combined PnL+$493.81

FURIA11 traders

Total Value$42.3K

Total Shares97,654

Combined PnL+$362.1

FaZe — 65%FURIA — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFaZe 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpFaZe 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrFaZe 63% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedFaZe 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FaZe 75% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	FaZeavg 56¢	$56.0K	$56.5K	+$500	54% 309-264 (573)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	FaZeavg 56¢	$44.8K	$45.2K	+$400	54% 2490-2142 (4632)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 43.3¢	$25.0K	$25.1K	+$138.26	53% 139-121 (260)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	FURIAavg 42¢	$8.4K	$8.6K	+$199.98	50% 1238-1238 (2476)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	FaZeavg 59.2¢	$8.0K	$7.5K	-$365.75	54% 327-283 (610)
Harrydubois	FaZeavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$18	43% 121-159 (280)
ShadowRealmsCTR	FURIAavg 42¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$23.2	52% 57-52 (109)
HO HongweiqianCTR	FURIAavg 44¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$20	49% 245-260 (505)
NO nobody2somebody	FaZeavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$15.37	52% 639-601 (1240)
WE weeeskiesCTR	FURIAavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15.3	53% 689-609 (1298)
Kangta7373CTR	FURIAavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13.64	55% 1071-871 (1942)
HL HLEbritni	FaZeavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	— 11-7 (18)
DE delacsynzy1	FaZeavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$981.3	-$18.7	52% 473-444 (917)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	FURIAavg 44¢	$944.24	$922.78	-$21.46	47% 2688-3046 (5734)
hasobidale	FaZeavg 59¢	$802.4	$761.6	-$20.4	65% 230-124 (354)
LE legitgame	FaZeavg 58.8¢	$799.35	$760.71	-$18.27	56% 249-195 (444)
MA manoamano	FaZeavg 57.8¢	$783.84	$759.53	-$17.52	51% 525-503 (1028)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	FURIAavg 41¢	$615	$645	+$30	32% 6340-13238 (19578)
PI PIPIZIN	FaZeavg 56¢	$599.2	$604.55	+$5.35	51% 434-419 (853)
latvian.demon	FaZeavg 57¢	$570	$560	-$10	54% 721-611 (1332)
CR Crazyboy77	FaZeavg 58¢	$580	$560	-$5	51% 185-176 (361)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	FaZeavg 56¢	$479.99	$494.99	+$20	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 56¢	$279.99	$279.99	+$5
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 40¢	$200	$215	+$15
LU LucasCosta.CTR	FURIAavg 43¢	$473	$478.5	+$5.5	41% 334-481 (815)
polaroid14	FaZeavg 56¢	$336	$336	+$0	48% 258-277 (535)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	FURIAavg 43¢	$242.34	$242.34	+$0	53% 8060-7271 (15331)

lllllllIlll

FaZe

Invested

$55,999.97

Value

$56.5K

PnL

+$500

Record

54%

309-264 (573)

THEHIGHLIFE

FaZe

Invested

$44,799.89

Value

$45.2K

PnL

+$400

Record

54%

2490-2142 (4632)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$24,994.72

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$138.26

Record

53%

139-121 (260)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

FURIA

Invested

$8,399.35

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$199.98

Record

50%

1238-1238 (2476)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

FaZe

Invested

$7,979.73

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$365.75

Record

54%

327-283 (610)

Harrydubois

FaZe

Invested

$2,016

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18

Record

43%

121-159 (280)

ShadowRealmsCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,948.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$23.2

Record

52%

57-52 (109)

HongweiqianCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,760

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$20

Record

49%

245-260 (505)

nobody2somebody

FaZe

Invested

$1,721.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15.37

Record

52%

639-601 (1240)

weeeskiesCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,315.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.3

Record

53%

689-609 (1298)

Kangta7373CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.64

Record

55%

1071-871 (1942)

HLEbritni

FaZe

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

11-7 (18)

delacsynzy1

FaZe

Invested

$1,000

Value

$981.3

PnL

-$18.7

Record

52%

473-444 (917)

Zzzz87CTR

FURIA

Invested

$944.24

Value

$922.78

PnL

-$21.46

Record

47%

2688-3046 (5734)

hasobidale

FaZe

Invested

$802.4

Value

$761.6

PnL

-$20.4

Record

65%

230-124 (354)

legitgame

FaZe

Invested

$799.35

Value

$760.71

PnL

-$18.27

Record

56%

249-195 (444)

manoamano

FaZe

Invested

$783.84

Value

$759.53

PnL

-$17.52

Record

51%

525-503 (1028)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

FURIA

Invested

$615

Value

$645

PnL

+$30

Record

32%

6340-13238 (19578)

PIPIZIN

FaZe

Invested

$599.2

Value

$604.55

PnL

+$5.35

Record

51%

434-419 (853)

latvian.demon

FaZe

Invested

$570

Value

$560

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

721-611 (1332)

Crazyboy77

FaZe

Invested

$580

Value

$560

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

185-176 (361)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$479.99

Value

$494.99

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

Both legs:

Invested

$473

Value

$478.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

41%

334-481 (815)

polaroid14

FaZe

Invested

$336

Value

$336

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

258-277 (535)

iWasEnoughCTR

FURIA

Invested

$242.34

Value

$242.34

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

8060-7271 (15331)

Research grade

NeutralFaZe at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FaZe

20 of 31 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFaZe 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpFaZe 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrFaZe 63% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedFaZe 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FaZe 75% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FaZe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.