Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FaZe, while the market favors FURIA (69%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (33%) · FaZe at 32¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
FaZe
6
FaZe 33%
$10.3K
$86.76
31.2¢ → 31.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR | FaZeavg 31.3¢ | $8.1K | $8.2K | +$54.7 | 54% 325-279 (604) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | FURIAavg 68¢ | $680 | $680 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
 Reformedx | FURIAavg 69¢ | $690 | $680 | -$5 | 52% 839-788 (1627) |
 VeryLucky888 | FURIAavg 68¢ | $510 | $510 | +$3.75 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | FaZeavg 27.7¢ | $205.2 | $233.54 | +$28.35 | 56% 115-90 (205) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | FURIAavg 68.6¢ | $38.96 | $38.64 | -$0.03 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$8,127.3
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$54.7
Record
54%
325-279 (604)
Invested
$680
Value
$680
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
ReformedxInvested
$690
Value
$680
PnL
-$5
Record
52%
839-788 (1627)
VeryLucky888Invested
$510
Value
$510
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$205.2
Value
$233.54
PnL
+$28.35
Record
56%
115-90 (205)
Invested
$38.96
Value
$38.64
PnL
-$0.03
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.