Consensus PnL -$65K · win rate 42% (260–359, n=619) · PM monthly #111 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-65.3K
Record
260W / 359L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 619 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2067
Source
PM monthly #111
Trades
204
Markets
630
Volume
$6.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotValentin Vacherot $17K · now 14¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Jiri Lehecka)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over $11K · now 0¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Under)
- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaNoma Noha Akugue $8.5K · now 28¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Alina Charaeva)
Specialties
365 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 45¢- Tennis
+28 pts
side won 72% of 311 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +29%
- Esports
+27 pts
side won 75% of 44 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 47% of 81)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 74% of 132)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 83% of 134)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.