1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: 1st Half O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$40.9K
$3.6K
69.2¢ → 100¢
+44% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 66.3¢ | $16.6K | $19.1K | +$2.4K | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
KK KkunnCTR | Overavg 32.9¢ | $10.0K | $10.7K | +$639.92 | 44% 235-303 (538) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 74¢ | $8.4K | $8.9K | +$515.51 | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
 ER72SEN | Underavg 80.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$46.06 | 67% 316-153 (469) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 35¢ | $115.49 | $188.03 | -$17.61 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 69¢ | $146.96 | $139.51 | -$7.45 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $158.1 | $137.95 | -$20.15 | 48% 1065-1165 (2230) |
SP spendingmoney<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $33.38 | $33.98 | +$0.86 | 56% 812-648 (1460) |
 eskilloCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.8¢ | $12.13 | $3.76 | -$8.37 | 42% 599-832 (1431) |
RN1Invested
$16,647.29
Value
$19.1K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$10,011.35
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$639.92
Record
44%
235-303 (538)
Invested
$8,389.79
Value
$8.9K
PnL
+$515.51
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
ER72SENInvested
$1,721.56
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$46.06
Record
67%
316-153 (469)
Invested
$115.49
Value
$188.03
PnL
-$17.61
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$146.96
Value
$139.51
PnL
-$7.45
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$158.1
Value
$137.95
PnL
-$20.15
Record
48%
1065-1165 (2230)
Invested
$33.38
Value
$33.98
PnL
+$0.86
Record
56%
812-648 (1460)
eskilloCTR<$100Invested
$12.13
Value
$3.76
PnL
-$8.37
Record
42%
599-832 (1431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.